Tesla’s stock experienced one of its worst single-day performances in company history on March 10, 2025, plummeting 15.4% (not 14% as commonly reported) and erasing approximately $150 billion in market value. Whittierdailynews +7 While a clean 3% single-day rebound didn’t materialize, the stock has shown volatile recovery patterns with multiple 4-7% daily gains through late May and early June 2025. Investopedia As of June 6, 2025, Tesla trades at $284.68, down 41% year-to-date TradingViewMacrotrends and significantly underperforming the S&P 500’s 4.6% decline. Investopedia
The political storm behind the crash
The dramatic selloff was triggered by a perfect storm of political turmoil involving CEO Elon Musk. Having led the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) and mandated massive federal layoffs, Musk faced unprecedented global backlash. TESLARATI +4 The situation exploded when President Trump publicly threatened to “terminate Elon’s subsidies” during a budget bill dispute, TradingView +3 creating what Wedbush analyst Dan Ives called “an F5 tornado” for Tesla’s brand. CNBC +7 The fallout was severe: Tesla sales in France crashed 67% in May to just 721 units, Sweden saw a 54% decline in registrations, Electrek and Germany dropped 76% following Musk’s support for the far-right AfD party. ReutersElectrek
Violent protests erupted globally, with over a dozen incidents including Molotov cocktails, arson, and gunfire targeting Tesla facilities. CNBC +7 Ives estimates Tesla has “lost at least 10% of its future customer base globally” from self-inflicted brand damage, potentially 20% or higher in Europe. QuartzThe Motley Fool The political association transformed Tesla from a progressive environmental symbol into what analysts describe as a “political lightning rod,” fundamentally altering its market position. CNBC
Deteriorating fundamentals compound the crisis
Beyond political headwinds, Tesla’s Q1 2025 earnings revealed alarming fundamental weakness. Revenue missed expectations at $19.34 billion versus $21.11 billion expected, down 9% year-over-year. Investing More concerning, automotive revenue plunged 20% to $14 billion, while operating income crashed 66% to just $400 million. The company’s operating margin collapsed to 2.1%, and Tesla would have lost money without $595 million in regulatory credits. CNBC +3 This marked Tesla’s first annual delivery decline in company history, with a 1% drop in 2024. CnEVPost +3
The competitive landscape has shifted dramatically. BYD overtook Tesla in both Q4 2024 and Q1 2025 for global battery electric vehicle sales, delivering 416,388 pure EVs versus Tesla’s 336,681 in Q1. CnEVPost +4 Tesla’s US EV market share has plummeted from 75% in Q1 2022 to just 43.5% in Q1 2025, The Motley Fool while in China, Tesla holds only 5.6% market share compared to BYD’s dominant 28.8%. CnEVPostThe Motley Fool
Wall Street’s divided response
The analyst community remains deeply split on Tesla’s prospects. The consensus rating sits at Hold, with an average price target of $289-294, implying minimal upside. StockAnalysis +3 Notably, even bulls have turned cautious – Wedbush’s Dan Ives slashed his target from $550 to $315, warning that Tesla has become “a political symbol globally” that threatens its disruptive technology narrative. Quartz +2 Goldman Sachs recently cut their target to $285 from $295, citing weakening demand across all key markets. Zero Hedge +2
The ratings distribution tells the story: 23% Strong Buy, 28% Buy, 27% Hold, 8% Sell, and 14% Strong Sell. Public +2 This unusual spread reflects the fundamental divide between those betting on Tesla’s autonomous driving future – with Cathie Wood maintaining a $2,600 target by 2030 – and skeptics pointing to the company’s 162x P/E ratio Yahoo Finance despite declining earnings and undelivered promises. Financemagnates
Technical breakdown signals further weakness
Tesla’s technical indicators paint a bearish picture across the board. The stock trades well below both its 50-day moving average of $348.48 and 200-day average of $319.42, forming a classic death cross pattern. Investing With an RSI of 30.5 indicating oversold conditions and MACD at -8.41, all 12 moving average indicators flash sell signals. InvestingCoinCodex Key support sits at $215 (May-July 2022 lows), with deeper support at $165, while major resistance looms at $300. Altindex
The stock’s beta of 2.58 confirms extreme volatility relative to the market, Yahoo Finance with implied volatility at 61.89%. Yahoo Finance This high volatility isn’t unusual for Tesla – the stock has experienced 128 moves greater than 2.5% in the past year alone. 24/7 Wall St. However, the March 10 crash ranks as the seventh-worst day in Tesla’s history, underscoring the severity of current challenges. CNBC
Institutional movements reveal uncertainty
Institutional ownership remains high at 66.2%, but recent movements show mixed conviction. While Vanguard increased holdings by 1.7% to 233.6 million shares and ARK Invest added 2.6%, notable insider selling raises concerns. Investopedia +4 Board Chairwoman Robyn Denholm sold $13.7 million on May 6, while James Murdoch sold $13 million during the March selloff. Insiderscreener +2 Short interest has surged 21% to 81.3-85 million shares, making Tesla the fourth most shorted US stock after Nvidia, Microsoft, and Apple. Benzinga +3
The options market saw explosive activity during the crash, with some traders realizing 850% same-day gains on puts. CNN This speculative fervor reflects the market’s struggle to value Tesla amid its transition from automotive manufacturer to AI/robotics company.
The robotaxi gamble
Tesla’s near-term fate may hinge on the June 12, 2025, robotaxi launch in Austin, starting with 10-20 Model Y vehicles before expanding to thousands. CNBC +10 Morgan Stanley maintains a $430 price target based on this autonomous driving potential, suggesting 93% upside if successful. TESLARATI However, with current Full Self-Driving technology only achieving Level 2 autonomy and facing multiple NHTSA investigations, PBSReuters execution risk remains extreme. CNBCReuters
The robotaxi launch represents what Wedbush calls a “fork in the road moment” – either validating Tesla’s $1 trillion AI opportunity thesis or exposing fundamental flaws in its pivot from automotive to autonomy. CNBC With 90% of bulls’ future profit expectations tied to robotaxi success, failure could trigger another significant leg down. CNBC
Comparative sector performance highlights Tesla-specific issues
While Tesla crashed 15%, peer EV stocks showed relative stability. Chinese competitors faced their own challenges – NIO down 51% and XPeng down 49% year-to-date The Motley Fool – but these reflected sector-wide margin pressures rather than company-specific crises. Investopedia BYD, despite being down only 6.2%, maintains a Strong Buy rating with continued market share gains. Invezz +2 The EV sector ETFs like IDRV and DRIV showed modest declines, confirming Tesla’s crash was largely isolated rather than part of broader sector weakness.
Global EV sales reached 17 million units in 2024, up 25% year-over-year, IEA with projections exceeding 20 million for 2025. IEACarboncredits This 25%+ market share growth trajectory suggests the fundamental EV transition remains intact, Carboncredits making Tesla’s struggles particularly concerning given the expanding market opportunity.
Critical catalysts ahead define Tesla’s trajectory
Beyond the pivotal June 12 robotaxi launch, Bloomberg +6 several catalysts loom. Tesla’s Q2 2025 earnings on July 29 will reveal whether the brand damage has accelerated or stabilized. TipRanks +3 The promised affordable model launch before Q2 end could address competitive pressures, while Optimus robot pilot production in 2025 adds another wildcard to valuation models. Musk’s late May announcement to “spend 24/7 at work” after stepping back from DOGE suggests recognition of the crisis, Yahoo Finance but rebuilding trust will take time. CNBCNPR
The company faces a stark choice: deliver on autonomous driving promises to justify its $914 billion market cap, or face a painful revaluation toward traditional automotive multiples. InvestopediaReuters With cash reserves of $37 billion Yahoo Finance and a 2.68 cash-to-debt ratio, Tesla has resources to weather the storm, GuruFocus +2 but the window for transformation is narrowing as Chinese competitors advance rapidly with 1,000kW charging technology and aggressive pricing. CNBC
Tesla’s 15% crash represents more than market volatility – it’s a reckoning for a company whose CEO’s political activities have fundamentally damaged its brand while competitive and financial pressures mount. The modest recovery attempts reflect bargain hunting rather than fundamental improvement, leaving the stock in a precarious position as it approaches make-or-break catalysts that will determine whether Tesla can reclaim its disruptive technology narrative or face a prolonged period of revaluation and market share losses.
